We have been using fraudwatch for over 2 years now and are on one of the higher end plans. It reliably alerts us to potentially fraudulent transactions. By tweaking the rules over time and learning what to look for, not much gets past the manual review system these days. And with a handful of transactions to review each day it doesn't take a lot of our time to manage. Definitely good value for money
Even though Fraudwatch can't tell the future and doesn't know the thoughts and intentions of your customers, it's still a very useful tool. Its purpose is to provide a heads up to store owners by drawing attention to when, for example, a billing address and shipping address are relatively close to one another in Ohio, but the order was actually placed from Nigeria. Things like that are good to know, and while you could take half the day researching the IP addresses associated with your orders to come up with the same information, the Fraudwatch tool does it instantly with no input from store admins. The Community Alert feature is nice too; sometimes seeing that the customer has ordered from other stores without incident is enough reason to ship their somewhat-questionable-looking order instead of just canceling it. Even if $10 a month doesn't pay for itself by alerting you to high risk orders, it's a nominal cost for peace of mind. Try it for a month or two and see how you like it.